Burnt Orange Report
Turning Texas Blue: A Process Not An Event

Republicans have a lot of soul-searching to do about the future viability of their party, but the same could be said about Texas Democrats. After conceding there was much work left to be done, Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said by 2018 Texas would become battleground state, “by itself.”

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Texas Not a Battleground? Obama: “That’s Going to be Changing Soon”

When national Democrats come to Texas for our money, they often insist that our state is more than their ATM. These claims now go all the way to the top, with President Obama’s quick yet important aside in San Antonio on Tuesday when talking about Mitt Romney:

Let me just say this. You know, in the next four months, you guys won’t see him, because you’re not considered one of the battleground states, although that’s going to be changing soon. [applause]

The president has said so, and he has some pretty good political minds around him all the time. If you did not already believe it, believe it now.

How soon is simply up to us. State chair Gilberto Hinojosa announced in a blast email, “This should serve as a call to action,” and it should. In 2009, Howard Dean “guaranteed” that Obama would win Texas in 2012, though no one seems to think that will happen now. If we take these statements as rallying cries rather than compliments to make us giddy, however, change will come.

Eventually, national Democratic money will pour into Texas instead of Texas money pouring out nationally. California millionaires will not give heavily to the cause, however, until they see victory on the horizon, so let’s bring it there. Read More

Analysis of PPP/SEIU Poll Shows Obama and Romney Tied in Texas

Worth sharing: DailyKos user dreaminonempty aggregated the Texas results of a national PPP survey on Obama vs Romney, and found that Texas respondents were tied:

Over the period of April 12 - July 1, 662 respondents to the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP State of the Nation poll were reached at a Texas phone number.  Among these respondents, Obama and Romney were tied 47-47.  (Please note that this is an aggregation of interviews from the weekly poll, not a stand-alone poll.)

The two stand-alone polls from the same time period also show a relatively tight margin among registered voters.  Texas is a Tossup at least by New York Times standards, based on this result and the two other polls with Romney +7 and Romney +8, for an average of Romney +5.

The post goes on to state that while this is a poll of registered, not likely voters, and that we saw similar trends in 2008, our state isn’t too likely to go Blue this cycle, but we’ve got strong potential.

Granted, Texas is an expensive state to campaign in given our sheer size, population, and number of costly media markets. But we’ve got great potential. One of the most pressing needs for Democrats here in Texas is to register and turn out our substantial Latino and African-American populations. Newly elected TDP Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa has shown a strong commitment to base mobilization, and these poll numbers should just reinforce the need to turn Texas into a competitive battleground, and eventually flip the state into the Blue column.

After all, when Texas goes Democratic again, it will be nearly impossible for the Republican party to elect a President ever again. That alone is a good reason to fight this fight, as far as I’m concerned.

What do you think? Will the Obama-Romney margin in Texas be narrower than 10 points?